Point 1. Too Much Is Too Much.
America consumes more of everything than any other culture in the world. So, naturally, most survivalist/preppers port that mass-consumption philosophy over to disaster preparedness, insisting that anything short of a basement fallout shelter with a full arsenal and months – if not years – of food supplies are the absolute minimum required to be safe in the event of a major cataclysm. More guns, more ammo, more bottled water, more canned food, more of this and that …
Bullshit. And here's why.
Point 2. Should I Stay Or Should I Go?
Unless you're lucky enough to happen to live very far away from any population center associated with whatever Bad Thing happens, there's really no type of disaster that would allow you to take advantage of the type of stockpile that conventional survivalism advocates. If you have a well-stocked retreat in the mountains of Wyoming – and you're there when disaster strikes – you're all set, at least until your canned supplies run out (more about this in future posts). But the fact is that most of us live in or around urban areas, and need to plan accordingly.
And that planning begins with the realization that there are really only two types of disaster scenarios that exist – Stay Home or Leave Home.
Stay Home disasters are generally short-term, and unexpected (like Katrina or 9/11). If you're caught in one, you'll want to hunker down in your house (if it isn't destroyed or uninhabitable, and you haven't been forcibly evacuated) for a few days, maybe a week or two at most. In that situation – and I've been through a devastating hurricane and its aftermath – it is definitely much nicer to have some food, water and a gun than not to. But, although folks may be scared, and some looting may occur, you're not likely to see mobs of desperate, starving people roaming the streets. Basically, if you have enough non-perishables and bottled water in your cupboard to allow you to keep your head down and wait until the authorities restore order, you'll probably be fine. In fact, without the many distractions of modern life, you may well find yourself chatting amiably with neighbors you didn't know you had (more about this in Point 3).
Leave Home disasters are generally long-term, and they might build gradually to crisis proportions (such as the Eight Year Drought experienced by the American Midwest during the Depression, or the Asian Flu pandemic of 1957), or they may be horrifyingly unexpected (like the Chernobyl nuclear reactor meltdown, or a hypothetical dirty-bomb attack on American soil). Some Leave Home disasters are short-term (like a raging fire, or an impending flood), but the common denominator of these disasters is that – as you might expect from the name – you will not be able to stay home! You will have to leave behind your thousands of dollars worth of carefully-hoarded supplies, your tons of ammunition, and anything else you can't carry. If you're lucky, you'll be able to use your car. Otherwise, you're going to be using people-power to get the hell out of town. And, if you have more than a few easily-hidden Krugerrands and personal firearms, you're going to feel kinda self-conscious staggering down the highway with a fancy tactical backpack full of boxed water, gold ingots, and ammunition for the AR-15 slung over your shoulder.
In summary, if you are in an urban or suburban area when an Event happens, and you can stay in your house, then things are not so bad that they won't soon be fixed. If you can NOT stay in your house, then you can't take most of your supplies with you anyway. My point is that, in either case, more than a few weeks worth of supplies is a waste of money and space. Counter-intuitive though it may seem to the American mentality, buying more stuff will not save you.
So what will?
Point 3. No Man Is An Island.
The typical survivalist mentality is one of rugged individualism to the nth degree. We are told that we will have to steel ourselves to the sound of our dying neighbors clawing at the door to our fortified basement, as we grimly ration SPAM and iodine tablets to our sobbing families. This is, in my humble opinion, bullshit.
First of all, what's the point of surviving if you can't live with yourself? I don't know about you, but I'm not too keen on the idea of letting people die at my doorstep if I can at all avoid it. If it's them or me, fine, but I'd prefer to find another option.
Secondly, as discussed in Point 2, unless you have a really sweet fallout shelter, and a nuclear attack happens at just the right distance from your home to not kill everybody but to cut you off from law and order for an extended period of time, you're very unlikely to be in a situation where you're hunkered down for months at a time. And, in that case, if history teaches us anything, it's that one man with a gun and a full pantry can not hold off the world for very long. In fact, once his location and state of his affluence is discovered, it'll be Custer's Last Stand all over again. You would do whatever is necessary to care for your loved ones, and so would they.
In any case, it's far more likely that you'll be facing one of the two scenarios I've described in Point 2: either you'll be dealing with a couple of weeks of post-disaster chaos, or you'll be hoofing it out of town in a long caravan of your fellow citizens. In either case, there's strength – and safety – in numbers. Chances are, the only people that are already going to be in organized groups are criminal gangs, so if you've got something you don't want to give up (like your wife or daughters), you're going to have to form – or join - a gang of your own. Whether you call it a Neighborhood Preparedness Association, a Citizens Brigade, a posse, a church group, or a Girl Scout troop is up to you. But in the absence of the technology that insulates us from each other, it'll be time to get friendly. In fact, don't be surprised if you like it! After a hurricane devastated my city, a few years ago, I met - and had nice conversations with – more of my neighbors than I ever had, in the previous five years I'd lived in that house. Interestingly, after the National Guard moved in, and the situation stabilized, we all went back to politely ignoring each other. However, it's been my experience that adversity brings out the best in most people. It's just the assholes you need to watch out for.
Point 4. I Survived. What Next?
So, since a Stay Home disaster is really not that big of a deal, let's consider the Leave Home experience. Imagine a worst-case scenario – the kind of thing that really gets those survivalist juices flowing. How about a coordinated, simultaneous nuclear attack on multiple US cities? This was the premise of the TV show “Jericho,” and what a terrific yarn that was! Now, that program took place in a small town that was fortunate enough to be largely untouched by the initial attacks, received only minimal fallout, and then more or less held things together thanks to good local leadership. Very nice. But what about the rest of us, who are statistically far more likely to be in population centers when TSHTF?
(Note: my reference to statistical probability also explains why you tend to find yourself in the longest line at the supermarket. In any given environment, if the majority of the population is in one place, the odds are that any given person will be in that place. You ARE any given person, so you're more likely to be there too.)The short answer is that you need three things:
1) Somewhere to go.
2) A way to get there.
3) The ability to sustain yourself and your dependents for the indefinite future, once you're there.
Taken together, these three elements comprise the "Personal Exit Strategy" for which this blog is named. Interestingly, all three of these conditions are just about equally difficult to meet. In upcoming posts, I will attempt to outline a rational approach to all three problems.
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