I want to digress from the scenario a little bit, and explore in more detail the subject of emergency supplies. There seems to be sort of a general idea in our consumerist society that being prepared for emergencies means buying a bunch of stuff. But you have to be selective. You can't possibly prepare for every conceivable situation. There are lots of items you might need under some conditions, but I believe it's more important to be light and mobile in an emergency – and maybe need to look around for something - than to be laden like a pack mule and be so tired from carrying all your stuff around that you can't be safe.
A second issue is expense: most of us don't have the money to buy tons of supplies for our houses, cars, spouse's cars, etc.
A third issue is theft. Your car could be jacked, your house could be robbed, some gang might grab your bag, whatever. Which is why the most important “stuff” isn't stuff at all. It's knowledge. What you have in your pocket may or may not help you out if TSHTF, but what you carry around in your head is probably going to save your ass.
I don't know for certain, but I would guess that most people have never read the little booklets in their First Aid kits (if they have First Aid kits), let alone have any idea how to administer CPR, dress a wound, identify a poisonous snake, etc. And, given the obesity rates in the First World, most people are incapable of covering any kind of distance at all without a car. Instead of buying a whole bunch of crap, I think anybody interested in surviving the unknown should focus more on learning how to take care of themselves under adverse situations, and while they're at it to perhaps get a little exercise once in a while.
With all that said, it's better to have some stuff and not need it than to need it and not have it.
My approach is to set up a simple, two-tier hierarchy:
1) Stranded Bag: The most essential, portable items that you're likely to need if you get stuck somewhere. It doesn't have to be WWIII, after all, your car could break down on the way to Grandma's house, or you could get snowed in on your way to a meeting. Everything should fit in a normal-sized backpack. If you drive, then it should be in your trunk. If you commute via public transportation, then you may want to strip the list down to the barest essentials that you can carry in your briefcase or purse.
2) Home Supplies: Useful items that you're not realistically going to be able to take away from your house. In short, these are items that you should have somewhere in your house, at all times – preferably in a large box or bucket so that they don't get used up under normal circumstances.
STRANDED BAG
☐ Bottled or Boxed Water
☐ High-Energy Food (granola bars, trail mix, etc.)
☐ Multi-Tool (Swiss Army knife, Leatherman or equivalent)
☐ Resealable Plastic Bags
☐ Change of Shoes, Socks & Underclothes
☐ Rain Gear (poncho or folding raincoat)
☐ Feminine Supplies (if applicable)
☐ Antiseptic towelettes or Hand Sanitizer
☐ Toilet Paper
☐ Towel
☐ Diapers (if applicable)
☐ Baby Wipes (if applicable)
☐ Spare Eyeglasses (if applicable)
☐ Small package of tissues
☐ First Aid Kit
☐ Flashlight with extra batteries
☐ Light sticks
☐ Dust Mask
☐ Handgun & ammunition
☐ Emergency contacts with phone # (written down, not just stored in your cel phone)
☐ Cash & coins
☐ Extra set of house & car keys
☐ Maps of the area (city and State)
☐ Duct tape (small roll)
☐ Thermal Emergency Blanket
☐ Toothbrush
☐ Toothpaste
☐ Dental Floss
☐ Plastic Trash Bags
☐ Soap
☐ Candles & Matches (Strike-anywhere type) in waterproof container
☐ Rope
☐ Gas can
HOME SUPPLIES
☐ Mess Kit or Paper Plates, Cups, Bowls and Eating Utensils
☐ Water (1 gallon per person per day, for as many days as you feel good about)
☐ Chlorine Bleach (small bottle of household bleach to treat drinking water)
☐ Canned Food (meats, beans, vegetables, fruit, soups)
☐ Canned Cooking Fuel (Sterno or equivalent)
☐ Dried Food (potatoes, vegetables, fruit, pasta, rice, cereal, milk)
☐ Cooking Staples (sugar, salt, cooking oil, spices)
☐ Manual Can Opener
☐ Portable radio with batteries
☐ Aluminum Foil
☐ Plastic Wrap
☐ Pots and Pans
☐ Thermal Underwear
☐ Lantern
☐ Candles
☐ Matches (Strike-anywhere type)
☐ Sleeping Bags
☐ Pillows
☐ Extra Towels
☐ Extra Toilet Paper
☐ Extra Feminine Supplies (if applicable)
☐ Extra Diapers (if applicable)
☐ Extra Baby Wipes (if applicable)
☐ Extra Eyeglasses (if applicable)
☐ Extra Soap
☐ Extra Laundry Detergent
☐ Chlorine Bleach (large bottle of household bleach to treat drinking water)
☐ Medium Sized Bucket with Lid
☐ Pet Food (if applicable)
☐ Pet Leash/Carrier (if applicable)
☐ Pet Food/Water Bowl (if applicable)
☐ Multivitamin
☐ Home Medical Kit, to include:
☐ Advil/Tylenol or equivalent for adults
☐ Advil/Tylenol or equivalent for children (if applicable)
☐ Anti-Diarrhea medication
☐ Cloth Adhesive Tape (“Trainer's Tape”)
☐ Thermometer
☐ Adhesive bandages (reasonably large quantity)
☐ Sterile gauze (several large packages)
☐ Cohesive bandage (at least 5 rolls)
☐ Disposable gloves (large box)
☐ Surgical mask
☐ Antiseptic Towelettes
☐ Antiseptic Ointment
☐ CPR breathing barrier
☐ Scissors
☐ Tweezers
☐ Cold pack
☐ Large sterile dressing
☐ Tools, to include
☐ Wrench to shut off gas & wate
☐ Pliers
☐ Screwdrivers
☐ Shovel
☐ Socket wrench set
☐ Hacksaw
☐ Rope/String
☐ Duct Tape
☐ Plastic Sheeting (heavy duty)
☐ ABC-type fire extinguisher
☐ Needle & thread
☐ Shotgun & ammunition
☐ Gasoline
☐ Bicycle (one per family member)
In addition to the items stored at home, it's a good idea to keep a safe deposit box at a bank or other secure location where you can safely store copies of documents, to include:
☐ Driver's license
☐ Social Security card
☐ Passport
☐ Birth certificate
☐ Divorce/Adoption/Naturalization papers
☐ Insurance policies
☐ Immunization records
☐ Bank, credit card & personal finance numbers
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Friday, January 2, 2009
This Is Only A Drill - Part 2
After a little digression with the last couple of posts, I'd like to resume the narrative thread I began earlier, regarding the actual logistics of a hypothetical Event.
So, let's say the time has come to Bug Out. There's a lot of good advice out there about stocking your car with tools, gasoline, etc., driving in a convoy to avoid brigands, and so on. All of which is outstanding, unless the Event was of an electromagnetic nature (EMP attack), and now virtually nothing works. This is why I put bicycles on my short list! If you happen to have horses, that's great, as long as they don't get sick, hurt or hungry, and as long as the sound of thundering hooves doesn't alert every opportunist within earshot to your presence, trajectory, and destination.
Bicycles are inexpensive, quiet, require no fuel, and are relatively easy to maintain and repair. Whether you're looking to get through a massive traffic jam, roads blocked by debris, or dealing with the aftermath of an EMP, you can count on a bicycle to see you through. A couple of spare inner tubes and a hand pump, and you're pretty well set. Of course, a bicycle offers no protection against any sort of violent attack, but it's the old strength vs. speed question. Would you rather be stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic in your Silverado while your city comes apart at the seams, or would you rather rely on stealth and maneuverability to avoid hot spots and get the hell out of Dodge?
Don't get me wrong, cars are great, and I'd much rather drive the 170+ miles to my hideaway with family and supplies than bike there, but it seems to me that any type of cataclysmic event is likely either to render cars unusable (for any one of numerous reasons), or to put so many people on the roads that cars will turn into death traps. A few years ago, facing a major hurricane, the authorities of a Southern state ordered a mandatory evacuation of thousands of residents. Those residents dutifully piled into their cars ... and sat on the highway for hours, many of them running out of gas in standstill traffic, while the weather got worse and worse. Thankfully, the hurricane wound up losing strength and nobody got killed, but the lesson learned was that our nation's infrastructure can not accommodate mass evacuation, even for an emergency as slow-moving as a hurricane.
Now imagine what the outbound traffic in your city would look like if a suitcase bomb went off at a football game!
Anyway, let's say you manage to bicycle to the destination you've prepared, dealing with whatever weather is going on, and avoiding or fighting off looters, rapists and assorted weirdos. Now what? Let's say you have some food and supplies (and that they haven't been found and looted by anyone else). How long will they last? The answer is, not long enough! This is why it's a really great idea to take up gardening as a hobby, RIGHT NOW. Hunting is fine, as long as you know what you're doing, but I tend to think that I'd like to stay as close as possible to my family and my hideout after a major Problem, and I'd also like to keep gunfire and other attention-drawing behavior to a minimum. I like things that are quiet and inconspicuous, so I recommend that anybody who considers himself a hunter invest in a good hunting bow, and learn how to use it. Along the same principle, I recommend that absolutely everybody, regardless of age, physical condition or infirmity learn the basics of agriculture.
The more you learn about how to raise your own food under optimal conditions, the more likely you are to be able to figure out how to do it under less-than-optimal ones. Now, even dedicated survivalists can't grow more than 80%-90% of their own food (and that's with years of preparation, building up orchards, etc.), but if I have any motto it's that "Something Is Better Than Nothing." If you can make your canned food last longer by growing some veggies, then that's a success. And there are some things that you can do to make it more of a success. Here are a few:
1) Use a greenhouse. No matter where you are, or what season it is, a greenhouse will allow you to grow more produce, faster, than you could otherwise. It doesn't have to be fancy either: PVC pipe and plastic dropcloth are cheap. Put 'em together, and you've got yourself a nice, fully-scalable greenhouse. Start small - maybe a 3' or 4' cube that you can put over some freestanding containers or a shelf of seedlings. I'll post some sample pictures soon, but there are plenty of designs available online. One tip: A layer of plastic on both the inside of the frame and the outside will leave an insulating cushion of air in between that will drastically help moderate temperatures inside the structure.
2) Unless you're looking for amber waves of grain, you can grow a lot of beans, tomatoes, lettuce, potatoes, and assorted veggies in containers and raised beds. Furthermore, water is precious. You'll need less of it if you cultivate plants in containers or raised beds, and you'll also have less trouble with weeds.
3) Herbs aren't just for hippies. If TSHTF, there's no access to meds. But, guess what, most medicine comes from plants anyway. Herbal medicine can be slower and and less effective than commercial pharmaceuticals, but it's also gentler, surprisingly powerful, and a whole lot better than nothing. Invest in a good book on herbs - one that gives you the culinary and medicinal use of many common herbs, as well as guidance on cultivation and preparation. Find out what will grow in your area, and if you have any specific medical conditions (hypertension, angina, etc.), find out what herbs can be used to treat it, and make sure you have some of those seeds on hand. Ideally, start growing some herbs now, get used to using them, and start learning how to identify and use them.
The moral of this drill? Something is DEFINITELY better than nothing.
So, let's say the time has come to Bug Out. There's a lot of good advice out there about stocking your car with tools, gasoline, etc., driving in a convoy to avoid brigands, and so on. All of which is outstanding, unless the Event was of an electromagnetic nature (EMP attack), and now virtually nothing works. This is why I put bicycles on my short list! If you happen to have horses, that's great, as long as they don't get sick, hurt or hungry, and as long as the sound of thundering hooves doesn't alert every opportunist within earshot to your presence, trajectory, and destination.
Bicycles are inexpensive, quiet, require no fuel, and are relatively easy to maintain and repair. Whether you're looking to get through a massive traffic jam, roads blocked by debris, or dealing with the aftermath of an EMP, you can count on a bicycle to see you through. A couple of spare inner tubes and a hand pump, and you're pretty well set. Of course, a bicycle offers no protection against any sort of violent attack, but it's the old strength vs. speed question. Would you rather be stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic in your Silverado while your city comes apart at the seams, or would you rather rely on stealth and maneuverability to avoid hot spots and get the hell out of Dodge?
Don't get me wrong, cars are great, and I'd much rather drive the 170+ miles to my hideaway with family and supplies than bike there, but it seems to me that any type of cataclysmic event is likely either to render cars unusable (for any one of numerous reasons), or to put so many people on the roads that cars will turn into death traps. A few years ago, facing a major hurricane, the authorities of a Southern state ordered a mandatory evacuation of thousands of residents. Those residents dutifully piled into their cars ... and sat on the highway for hours, many of them running out of gas in standstill traffic, while the weather got worse and worse. Thankfully, the hurricane wound up losing strength and nobody got killed, but the lesson learned was that our nation's infrastructure can not accommodate mass evacuation, even for an emergency as slow-moving as a hurricane.
Now imagine what the outbound traffic in your city would look like if a suitcase bomb went off at a football game!
Anyway, let's say you manage to bicycle to the destination you've prepared, dealing with whatever weather is going on, and avoiding or fighting off looters, rapists and assorted weirdos. Now what? Let's say you have some food and supplies (and that they haven't been found and looted by anyone else). How long will they last? The answer is, not long enough! This is why it's a really great idea to take up gardening as a hobby, RIGHT NOW. Hunting is fine, as long as you know what you're doing, but I tend to think that I'd like to stay as close as possible to my family and my hideout after a major Problem, and I'd also like to keep gunfire and other attention-drawing behavior to a minimum. I like things that are quiet and inconspicuous, so I recommend that anybody who considers himself a hunter invest in a good hunting bow, and learn how to use it. Along the same principle, I recommend that absolutely everybody, regardless of age, physical condition or infirmity learn the basics of agriculture.
The more you learn about how to raise your own food under optimal conditions, the more likely you are to be able to figure out how to do it under less-than-optimal ones. Now, even dedicated survivalists can't grow more than 80%-90% of their own food (and that's with years of preparation, building up orchards, etc.), but if I have any motto it's that "Something Is Better Than Nothing." If you can make your canned food last longer by growing some veggies, then that's a success. And there are some things that you can do to make it more of a success. Here are a few:
1) Use a greenhouse. No matter where you are, or what season it is, a greenhouse will allow you to grow more produce, faster, than you could otherwise. It doesn't have to be fancy either: PVC pipe and plastic dropcloth are cheap. Put 'em together, and you've got yourself a nice, fully-scalable greenhouse. Start small - maybe a 3' or 4' cube that you can put over some freestanding containers or a shelf of seedlings. I'll post some sample pictures soon, but there are plenty of designs available online. One tip: A layer of plastic on both the inside of the frame and the outside will leave an insulating cushion of air in between that will drastically help moderate temperatures inside the structure.
2) Unless you're looking for amber waves of grain, you can grow a lot of beans, tomatoes, lettuce, potatoes, and assorted veggies in containers and raised beds. Furthermore, water is precious. You'll need less of it if you cultivate plants in containers or raised beds, and you'll also have less trouble with weeds.
3) Herbs aren't just for hippies. If TSHTF, there's no access to meds. But, guess what, most medicine comes from plants anyway. Herbal medicine can be slower and and less effective than commercial pharmaceuticals, but it's also gentler, surprisingly powerful, and a whole lot better than nothing. Invest in a good book on herbs - one that gives you the culinary and medicinal use of many common herbs, as well as guidance on cultivation and preparation. Find out what will grow in your area, and if you have any specific medical conditions (hypertension, angina, etc.), find out what herbs can be used to treat it, and make sure you have some of those seeds on hand. Ideally, start growing some herbs now, get used to using them, and start learning how to identify and use them.
The moral of this drill? Something is DEFINITELY better than nothing.
Gardening & Medical Supplies
As it gets closer to seed-sprouting time, I'd like to mention an outstanding book I recently purchased and read: "All New Square Foot Gardening" by Mel Bartholomew. The book is designed for the casual gardener, but - as his own website, http://www.squarefootgardening.com - states, the system of ultra-high efficiency agriculture that Mr. Bartholomew has developed is ideal for subsistence farming. Here's a quote from his website:
"SQUARE FOOT GARDENING
THE MOST PRACTICAL PREPAREDNESS GARDEN
During a time of crisis, when we may be living on what we can produce, it will be important that gardening have the features of Square Foot Gardening:
• Easy to understand. Does not require extensive training or years of experience
Anything to make gardening easier or simpler should be done. This is especially true for beginners, but even experienced gardeners will benefit from easier methods.
• Requires much less effort; No Heavy Digging, No Tilling, Very Little Weeding
There will be much to do. Having LESS to do in the garden will really help!
• 5 times more productive than conventional gardening
Few families have enough land to be self-sustaining. Therefore, high production in a small space is needed. The Square Foot Gardening method is at least 5 times more productive in the same amount of space as conventional row gardening.
• Uses much less water - Each plant is given just enough
Water may not be flowing from the tap, and may even have to be carried long distances by hand. Using a minimum amount of water will be important.
• Uses fewer seeds. No seed goes to waste
Seeds may not be easily available. None will go to waste through over-sowing.
• Is not dependant on fertilizers. Your own compost provides the nutrients
Commercial fertilizer may not be available. Compost is renewable and sustainable.
• Does not require a tiller or other expensive tools
Gasoline to run a tiller may not be available, nor may other garden tools.
• Can be done anywhere - Soil is not an issue
Traditional gardening usually takes several years to “condition” the soil. Square Foot Gardening uses an easily prepared soil mixture that replaces “bad soil”, providing excellent results immediately.
As an essential part your preparedness program:
Learn and practice Square Foot Gardening - begin today
During a time of need, many people will be digging up their lawns to plant gardens, only to become frustrated with the results. Please don't be one of them - PREPARE NOW"
I find it interesting that a mainstream gardening author would specifically mention a "time of crisis" during which soil, water, and fertilizer may not be available for extended periods of time. Also worthy of note is that Mr. Bartholomew has started a foundation that has been successfully teaching his "Square Foot Gardening" system to people on the verge of starvation in Third World countries, to help them to supplement their diets. Definitely something worth checking out for anybody interested in growing some of their own food (which, really, should be EVERYBODY).
Earlier today, I read an old post on vikingpreparedness.blogspot.com/ regarding medical supplies. The point of the post was that anyone who thinks having 10,000 rounds of ammo is a good idea needs to consider that if you were actually to need that ammunition, somebody else is likely to be shooting at you, and you should have an appropriately scaled cache of medical supplies. I agree completely, and I recommend purchasing some supplies from www.med101store.com. Unlike other medical wholesalers - who offer thousands of items at decent, but not great, prices - med101store only offers the most frequently needed, quickly used items (bandages, gauze, tape), at extremely deep discounts. For example, a roll of cohesive bandage will cost you about $5 at your local pharmacy. On med101store, you can buy a case of 36 rolls for $25. They also offer free shipping to business addresses, which is nice if you don't mind having stuff sent to your office, and they'll ship to residential addresses for a small flat rate ($3.95, I think).
By the way, I have no affiliation with any product, service, or vendor I endorse on this blog. These are all my genuine, unsolicited (and uncompensated) opinions.
"SQUARE FOOT GARDENING
THE MOST PRACTICAL PREPAREDNESS GARDEN
During a time of crisis, when we may be living on what we can produce, it will be important that gardening have the features of Square Foot Gardening:
• Easy to understand. Does not require extensive training or years of experience
Anything to make gardening easier or simpler should be done. This is especially true for beginners, but even experienced gardeners will benefit from easier methods.
• Requires much less effort; No Heavy Digging, No Tilling, Very Little Weeding
There will be much to do. Having LESS to do in the garden will really help!
• 5 times more productive than conventional gardening
Few families have enough land to be self-sustaining. Therefore, high production in a small space is needed. The Square Foot Gardening method is at least 5 times more productive in the same amount of space as conventional row gardening.
• Uses much less water - Each plant is given just enough
Water may not be flowing from the tap, and may even have to be carried long distances by hand. Using a minimum amount of water will be important.
• Uses fewer seeds. No seed goes to waste
Seeds may not be easily available. None will go to waste through over-sowing.
• Is not dependant on fertilizers. Your own compost provides the nutrients
Commercial fertilizer may not be available. Compost is renewable and sustainable.
• Does not require a tiller or other expensive tools
Gasoline to run a tiller may not be available, nor may other garden tools.
• Can be done anywhere - Soil is not an issue
Traditional gardening usually takes several years to “condition” the soil. Square Foot Gardening uses an easily prepared soil mixture that replaces “bad soil”, providing excellent results immediately.
As an essential part your preparedness program:
Learn and practice Square Foot Gardening - begin today
During a time of need, many people will be digging up their lawns to plant gardens, only to become frustrated with the results. Please don't be one of them - PREPARE NOW"
I find it interesting that a mainstream gardening author would specifically mention a "time of crisis" during which soil, water, and fertilizer may not be available for extended periods of time. Also worthy of note is that Mr. Bartholomew has started a foundation that has been successfully teaching his "Square Foot Gardening" system to people on the verge of starvation in Third World countries, to help them to supplement their diets. Definitely something worth checking out for anybody interested in growing some of their own food (which, really, should be EVERYBODY).
Earlier today, I read an old post on vikingpreparedness.blogspot.com/ regarding medical supplies. The point of the post was that anyone who thinks having 10,000 rounds of ammo is a good idea needs to consider that if you were actually to need that ammunition, somebody else is likely to be shooting at you, and you should have an appropriately scaled cache of medical supplies. I agree completely, and I recommend purchasing some supplies from www.med101store.com. Unlike other medical wholesalers - who offer thousands of items at decent, but not great, prices - med101store only offers the most frequently needed, quickly used items (bandages, gauze, tape), at extremely deep discounts. For example, a roll of cohesive bandage will cost you about $5 at your local pharmacy. On med101store, you can buy a case of 36 rolls for $25. They also offer free shipping to business addresses, which is nice if you don't mind having stuff sent to your office, and they'll ship to residential addresses for a small flat rate ($3.95, I think).
By the way, I have no affiliation with any product, service, or vendor I endorse on this blog. These are all my genuine, unsolicited (and uncompensated) opinions.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Iran May Be Planning EMP Attack
I'm going to interrupt my instructional scenario to bring you an interesting analysis regarding Iran's potential strategy of using nuclear weapons - not by detonating them in population centers, but by launching them into the atmosphere and detonating them at altitude, to create one or more widespread Electro Magnetic Pulses, crippling tranportation, knocking out power, etc. This may now be the most plausible crisis to prepare against, so I'm going to adjust the strategy I've been discussing to account for this new development.
http://www.newsmax.com/timmerman/iran_nuclear_plan/2008/07/29/117217.html
http://www.newsmax.com/timmerman/iran_nuclear_plan/2008/07/29/117217.html
Thursday, December 4, 2008
This Is Only A Drill - Part 1
Let's say something bad happens. For example, you live in Sacramento, and a dirty bomb just went off in Los Angeles, about 350 miles to the south. You're worried that your own home town or maybe neighboring San Francisco might be next, and who knows but that a stiff sea breeze might be blowing a fallout cloud your way. Fortunately, you've purchased a cabin near the Oregon border, only 250 miles away. An easy half-day drive, normally. But this isn't normal. The streets are full of panicking people, the riot police are using a heavy hand to keep things under control, and nobody knows what the hell is going on. You're in an office building trying to get through on an overloaded cel-phone system, your wife is halfway across the city, dealing with God knows what, and your kids are in school at a third location, probably going through some kind of meaningless fire drill. What do you do?
First of all, you should have already talked to your family about the possibility of something like this, and agreed on some kind of plan. If you haven't, you can still put the phone down, because if you have kids in school, there is a 99.9% chance that your wife will be heading for them. If meeting at the school wasn't your plan, it should have been, because that's where you're both going to go anyway. So, you exit your building and take stock of the scene outside. It sucks. Mobs of people are running around, trying to pull their heads out of their asses, and traffic is even more of a nightmare than usual. In any large city, it will generally take longer to drive somewhere in a crisis situation than it will to bicycle, run, or even walk. So, hopefully you have a small emergency kit (“Get Home Bag”) in an inconspicuous backpack, in your trunk, and you can throw that over your shoulder and head for the kiddies. If you can afford to keep one of those neat folding bicycles in your trunk too, that's even better. But, if you're like most of us and can't, you're going to be walking. So, hopefully you thought to put some sneakers (or – my personal preference – police-style “duty shoes” designed for lots of walking and a little running, in all weather) in that Get Home Bag, along with whatever type of weather-appropriate outergear (at least a light rain-proof jacket) you feel is appropriate. If you pass any kind of store that sells bicycles, and it's open for business, this would be a good time to buy a bicycle. Fortunately, you had the foresight to pack a couple of hundred dollars in cash in your Get Home Bag, as the price of bicycles just doubled, and the credit card machines aren't working because the phone lines are jammed.
Incidentally, I do not – however sexist it may seem – suggest that women abandon their cars and walk into scenes of civil disturbance. A car – although by no means a fortress – is at the very least a large, blunt weapon. It's better to arrive late than never, and you may need that car to leave town, so ditching it at the first blush of trouble is not a great plan. If – as in the scenario I'm describing here – you're a married man with a two-car family, you should plan on your wife staying with her car, so that if you have to leave yours somewhere, you're not totally out of transportation.
Alright … Let's say you get to the school, but there's good news and bad news. The good news is your kids have already been picked up by your wife. The bad news is, she didn't realize that you were coming there, and didn't wait for you. Now you've gotta get home. Good thing you brought those duty shoes and/or bought that bicycle!
Several hours pass, and you get home. You had to walk/bicycle through some really bad parts of town to get home, and you saw people starting to do some light looting, but fortunately you had the foresight to pack a loaded handgun – with appropriate holster - in your Get Home Bag. If you're really smart, you've gone ahead and procured a legal Concealed Carry Permit, but if you haven't, you keep it in your trunk in a small range bag along with some paper targets and ear-muffs. Why? Because, “Officer, I was on my way to the shooting range when you pulled me over for a broken taillight and decided to search my car.” In the event of civil unrest, however, you're a lot better off to have a handgun – and to make the decision whether to carry it illegally or not – than not to have one. The cops are going to have a lot more to worry about than some dude on a bicycle with a backpack on, trying to get home to his family.
Anyway, you get home, and thank God, your family is safe and waiting for you. It's starting to get dark now, and no more nukes have gone off. If more nukes have gone off, that's the end of your story. You never even got out of the city. But, for the sake of illustration, let's say everybody's okay. Now, you've got a problem, because you've got fallout coming, and traffic is still a nightmare. Can you beat the cloud? Maybe. But wait, you left your car at the office. Did your wife get her car home? Do you have enough bicycles for everyone? Can the kids bike for half the night, in the dark, on highways jammed with panicking motorists? You're going to have to make that call. My tendency would be to think that, if no more nukes have gone off, this is now a Stay Home scenario. Tape up the doors and windows, load the shotgun, turn out the lights, and sit tight.
At this point, you have a decision to make. You can either offer to help your neighbors, or not. Nothing intrusive, of course, just an offer to help with their door-taping and perhaps a suggestion of mutual aid should circumstances deteriorate. If your neighbors are law-abiding citizens, they'll probably appreciate your offer of assistance, especially if you seem calm and competent about the steps necessary to seal a home against fallout. If they aren't law-abiding – say they're drug dealers or gangbangers – it may be even better! When TSHTF, they're probably just as scared as anyone else. If they aren't, they'll be out looting, and won't be home anyway. But, as I mentioned previously, there's safety in numbers, and while you don't want to advertise your presence – or supplies – to anyone truly dangerous, earning brownie points with free-thinking folks (who are probably fairly well-armed and have access to resources that you don't) could be very valuable. The judgment call is yours. However, for peaceful neighbors, it should be a no-brainer. They're much more likely to help you later than to try to ob you. And, if things get that bad, you're going to have bigger problems.
So, you sit tight for a week, and things aren't looking too good. The fallout was pretty minimal, fortunately, and the worst of the traffic is over, but the water and electricity went out the night of the attack, and the static-filled reports you hear on your battery-powered radio are making you think that more than just Los Angeles was affected. You've heard a lot of noise and looting going on in the streets, and if you had a car at home, it's either been stolen or had all the gasoline siphoned out of it. The cops seem to have gone home to take care of their families, and if there's any military presence at all, it's going to be focused in the commercial districts. You make the decision that this has become a Leave Home situation, and that you've gotta make a run for your cabin.
In the next blog entry, we'll explore the lessons learned on your hypothetical trip to your hideaway. For now, let's recap what we've learned so far.
To Do
-Make a plan with your family
-Prepare your Get Home Bag and your Stay Home Kit
-Earn a Concealed Weapons Permit
Get Home Bag
-First Aid Kit
-Bottled Water
-Sneakers
-Rain Jacket
-Hat
-Emergency Food
-Cash
-Handgun, Ammunition, Holster
Stay Home Kit
-Duct Tape
-Shotgun, Ammunition
-Food for a month
-Water for a month
-Battery or crank-powered radio
First of all, you should have already talked to your family about the possibility of something like this, and agreed on some kind of plan. If you haven't, you can still put the phone down, because if you have kids in school, there is a 99.9% chance that your wife will be heading for them. If meeting at the school wasn't your plan, it should have been, because that's where you're both going to go anyway. So, you exit your building and take stock of the scene outside. It sucks. Mobs of people are running around, trying to pull their heads out of their asses, and traffic is even more of a nightmare than usual. In any large city, it will generally take longer to drive somewhere in a crisis situation than it will to bicycle, run, or even walk. So, hopefully you have a small emergency kit (“Get Home Bag”) in an inconspicuous backpack, in your trunk, and you can throw that over your shoulder and head for the kiddies. If you can afford to keep one of those neat folding bicycles in your trunk too, that's even better. But, if you're like most of us and can't, you're going to be walking. So, hopefully you thought to put some sneakers (or – my personal preference – police-style “duty shoes” designed for lots of walking and a little running, in all weather) in that Get Home Bag, along with whatever type of weather-appropriate outergear (at least a light rain-proof jacket) you feel is appropriate. If you pass any kind of store that sells bicycles, and it's open for business, this would be a good time to buy a bicycle. Fortunately, you had the foresight to pack a couple of hundred dollars in cash in your Get Home Bag, as the price of bicycles just doubled, and the credit card machines aren't working because the phone lines are jammed.
Incidentally, I do not – however sexist it may seem – suggest that women abandon their cars and walk into scenes of civil disturbance. A car – although by no means a fortress – is at the very least a large, blunt weapon. It's better to arrive late than never, and you may need that car to leave town, so ditching it at the first blush of trouble is not a great plan. If – as in the scenario I'm describing here – you're a married man with a two-car family, you should plan on your wife staying with her car, so that if you have to leave yours somewhere, you're not totally out of transportation.
Alright … Let's say you get to the school, but there's good news and bad news. The good news is your kids have already been picked up by your wife. The bad news is, she didn't realize that you were coming there, and didn't wait for you. Now you've gotta get home. Good thing you brought those duty shoes and/or bought that bicycle!
Several hours pass, and you get home. You had to walk/bicycle through some really bad parts of town to get home, and you saw people starting to do some light looting, but fortunately you had the foresight to pack a loaded handgun – with appropriate holster - in your Get Home Bag. If you're really smart, you've gone ahead and procured a legal Concealed Carry Permit, but if you haven't, you keep it in your trunk in a small range bag along with some paper targets and ear-muffs. Why? Because, “Officer, I was on my way to the shooting range when you pulled me over for a broken taillight and decided to search my car.” In the event of civil unrest, however, you're a lot better off to have a handgun – and to make the decision whether to carry it illegally or not – than not to have one. The cops are going to have a lot more to worry about than some dude on a bicycle with a backpack on, trying to get home to his family.
Anyway, you get home, and thank God, your family is safe and waiting for you. It's starting to get dark now, and no more nukes have gone off. If more nukes have gone off, that's the end of your story. You never even got out of the city. But, for the sake of illustration, let's say everybody's okay. Now, you've got a problem, because you've got fallout coming, and traffic is still a nightmare. Can you beat the cloud? Maybe. But wait, you left your car at the office. Did your wife get her car home? Do you have enough bicycles for everyone? Can the kids bike for half the night, in the dark, on highways jammed with panicking motorists? You're going to have to make that call. My tendency would be to think that, if no more nukes have gone off, this is now a Stay Home scenario. Tape up the doors and windows, load the shotgun, turn out the lights, and sit tight.
At this point, you have a decision to make. You can either offer to help your neighbors, or not. Nothing intrusive, of course, just an offer to help with their door-taping and perhaps a suggestion of mutual aid should circumstances deteriorate. If your neighbors are law-abiding citizens, they'll probably appreciate your offer of assistance, especially if you seem calm and competent about the steps necessary to seal a home against fallout. If they aren't law-abiding – say they're drug dealers or gangbangers – it may be even better! When TSHTF, they're probably just as scared as anyone else. If they aren't, they'll be out looting, and won't be home anyway. But, as I mentioned previously, there's safety in numbers, and while you don't want to advertise your presence – or supplies – to anyone truly dangerous, earning brownie points with free-thinking folks (who are probably fairly well-armed and have access to resources that you don't) could be very valuable. The judgment call is yours. However, for peaceful neighbors, it should be a no-brainer. They're much more likely to help you later than to try to ob you. And, if things get that bad, you're going to have bigger problems.
So, you sit tight for a week, and things aren't looking too good. The fallout was pretty minimal, fortunately, and the worst of the traffic is over, but the water and electricity went out the night of the attack, and the static-filled reports you hear on your battery-powered radio are making you think that more than just Los Angeles was affected. You've heard a lot of noise and looting going on in the streets, and if you had a car at home, it's either been stolen or had all the gasoline siphoned out of it. The cops seem to have gone home to take care of their families, and if there's any military presence at all, it's going to be focused in the commercial districts. You make the decision that this has become a Leave Home situation, and that you've gotta make a run for your cabin.
In the next blog entry, we'll explore the lessons learned on your hypothetical trip to your hideaway. For now, let's recap what we've learned so far.
To Do
-Make a plan with your family
-Prepare your Get Home Bag and your Stay Home Kit
-Earn a Concealed Weapons Permit
Get Home Bag
-First Aid Kit
-Bottled Water
-Sneakers
-Rain Jacket
-Hat
-Emergency Food
-Cash
-Handgun, Ammunition, Holster
Stay Home Kit
-Duct Tape
-Shotgun, Ammunition
-Food for a month
-Water for a month
-Battery or crank-powered radio
Leave Home Kit
- Bicycles
- Gasoline
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Nowhere To Run
There are as many opinions about where one could best survive as there are people interested in surviving. In a way, this is good, because it means that we aren't all saving our pennies trying to buy plots of land on the same mountain somewhere.
But, rather than recycle “conventional wisdom” about heading to Montana or Wyoming, I've taken a somewhat more systematic approach to narrowing down potential exit destinations. My idea here was to determine the areas in the USA that are remote enough to be away from any likely disaster areas, and to have affordable land, yet were close enough that, if TSHTF, I could plausibly get my family there, while avoiding scavengers.
Here is a basic map of the USA. Population centers are shaded a little darker. Canada and Mexico are blacked out, because I tend to think that if things are bad enough for us to want to head to the border, those borders are going to be shut tighter than you'd believe.
One of the scariest things I can imagine is a Chernobyl-style nuclear meltdown – either accidental or intentional. After Chernobyl, scientists were measuring significant fallout all over Europe and Scandinavia, and measurable levels of fallout over the entire Northern Hemisphere, so really being a few miles out of town isn't going to save your ass, but obviously the farther the better. Here's the same map, with all the currently-active nuclear facilities indicated by red dots. (Source: http://eyeball-series.org/npp/62npp-eyeball.htm)
As you can see, there are quite a few of them. Since there's no way to know which are more likely to have an accident or to be targeted by terrorists, let's plan on avoiding all of them. Here's a map that shows a fairly optimistic (i.e. small) fallout radius. Already, you can see that most of the East Coast is not looking too good.
Well and good, you may be thinking, but it's more likely that terrorists will set off suitcase nukes in major cities than try to break into heavily-secured reactor facilities. Okay, here's a map that shows similar fallout radiuses from the top 40 population centers in the USA. (Rather than city population, which doesn't take into account adjacent population centers, I've used TV markets as my reference for this: http://www.tvb.org/rcentral/markettrack/US_HH_by_DMA.asp)
Really, it's not too different. Here's a map with both danger zones overlaid. You can see that really, it just tells us more of the same (although it does start to look scary as hell).
So, looks like everything in the West is pretty safe, right? Not so fast. What are you going to do once you get your family – and whatever stragglers you've picked up – to your little hideout? Live on canned food forever? No, you've gotta plant crops and get ready to sustain yourself indefinitely. That means you need water. Unfortunately, here's the same map with the dryest, most drought-prone parts of the country shaded brown. (Source: http://www.mapsofworld.com/usa/thematic-maps/usa-precipitation.html)
Uh-oh. That narrows things down a bit. But wait, without electricity and heating oil, what are you going to do when the temperature drops to freezing for several months per year? Here's the same map with the coldest parts of the country shaded in. Worse yet. (Source: http://www.arborday.org/media/zones.cfm)
Outside of a small area on the California/Oregon border, and parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, and East Texas, things are looking pretty slim. There are little pockets that look appealing – parts of Kentucky, for example, but if you keep in mind that two-thirds of the US population lives within a day's drive of that area, it starts to look like a bit of bulls-eye. Not to mention the fact that TN/KY/WV are heavy coal-mining states, meaning that many of the mountains been strip-mined, polluting the water and irrevocably harming the local ecology. Most of the other “safe” areas have similar issues.
So, WTF? My point here is that NOWHERE IS 100% SAFE. There is no perfect spot to “bug out.” If there were, everybody with an ounce of sense would already be there!
So, let's back up a bit. In my next post, I'll explore a possible scenario, and see what we can learn from it.
But, rather than recycle “conventional wisdom” about heading to Montana or Wyoming, I've taken a somewhat more systematic approach to narrowing down potential exit destinations. My idea here was to determine the areas in the USA that are remote enough to be away from any likely disaster areas, and to have affordable land, yet were close enough that, if TSHTF, I could plausibly get my family there, while avoiding scavengers.
Here is a basic map of the USA. Population centers are shaded a little darker. Canada and Mexico are blacked out, because I tend to think that if things are bad enough for us to want to head to the border, those borders are going to be shut tighter than you'd believe.
One of the scariest things I can imagine is a Chernobyl-style nuclear meltdown – either accidental or intentional. After Chernobyl, scientists were measuring significant fallout all over Europe and Scandinavia, and measurable levels of fallout over the entire Northern Hemisphere, so really being a few miles out of town isn't going to save your ass, but obviously the farther the better. Here's the same map, with all the currently-active nuclear facilities indicated by red dots. (Source: http://eyeball-series.org/npp/62npp-eyeball.htm)
As you can see, there are quite a few of them. Since there's no way to know which are more likely to have an accident or to be targeted by terrorists, let's plan on avoiding all of them. Here's a map that shows a fairly optimistic (i.e. small) fallout radius. Already, you can see that most of the East Coast is not looking too good.
Well and good, you may be thinking, but it's more likely that terrorists will set off suitcase nukes in major cities than try to break into heavily-secured reactor facilities. Okay, here's a map that shows similar fallout radiuses from the top 40 population centers in the USA. (Rather than city population, which doesn't take into account adjacent population centers, I've used TV markets as my reference for this: http://www.tvb.org/rcentral/markettrack/US_HH_by_DMA.asp)
Really, it's not too different. Here's a map with both danger zones overlaid. You can see that really, it just tells us more of the same (although it does start to look scary as hell).
So, looks like everything in the West is pretty safe, right? Not so fast. What are you going to do once you get your family – and whatever stragglers you've picked up – to your little hideout? Live on canned food forever? No, you've gotta plant crops and get ready to sustain yourself indefinitely. That means you need water. Unfortunately, here's the same map with the dryest, most drought-prone parts of the country shaded brown. (Source: http://www.mapsofworld.com/usa/thematic-maps/usa-precipitation.html)
Uh-oh. That narrows things down a bit. But wait, without electricity and heating oil, what are you going to do when the temperature drops to freezing for several months per year? Here's the same map with the coldest parts of the country shaded in. Worse yet. (Source: http://www.arborday.org/media/zones.cfm)
Outside of a small area on the California/Oregon border, and parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, and East Texas, things are looking pretty slim. There are little pockets that look appealing – parts of Kentucky, for example, but if you keep in mind that two-thirds of the US population lives within a day's drive of that area, it starts to look like a bit of bulls-eye. Not to mention the fact that TN/KY/WV are heavy coal-mining states, meaning that many of the mountains been strip-mined, polluting the water and irrevocably harming the local ecology. Most of the other “safe” areas have similar issues.
So, WTF? My point here is that NOWHERE IS 100% SAFE. There is no perfect spot to “bug out.” If there were, everybody with an ounce of sense would already be there!
So, let's back up a bit. In my next post, I'll explore a possible scenario, and see what we can learn from it.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
The Problem, And What To Do About It
Point 1. Too Much Is Too Much.
America consumes more of everything than any other culture in the world. So, naturally, most survivalist/preppers port that mass-consumption philosophy over to disaster preparedness, insisting that anything short of a basement fallout shelter with a full arsenal and months – if not years – of food supplies are the absolute minimum required to be safe in the event of a major cataclysm. More guns, more ammo, more bottled water, more canned food, more of this and that …
Bullshit. And here's why.
Point 2. Should I Stay Or Should I Go?
Unless you're lucky enough to happen to live very far away from any population center associated with whatever Bad Thing happens, there's really no type of disaster that would allow you to take advantage of the type of stockpile that conventional survivalism advocates. If you have a well-stocked retreat in the mountains of Wyoming – and you're there when disaster strikes – you're all set, at least until your canned supplies run out (more about this in future posts). But the fact is that most of us live in or around urban areas, and need to plan accordingly.
And that planning begins with the realization that there are really only two types of disaster scenarios that exist – Stay Home or Leave Home.
Stay Home disasters are generally short-term, and unexpected (like Katrina or 9/11). If you're caught in one, you'll want to hunker down in your house (if it isn't destroyed or uninhabitable, and you haven't been forcibly evacuated) for a few days, maybe a week or two at most. In that situation – and I've been through a devastating hurricane and its aftermath – it is definitely much nicer to have some food, water and a gun than not to. But, although folks may be scared, and some looting may occur, you're not likely to see mobs of desperate, starving people roaming the streets. Basically, if you have enough non-perishables and bottled water in your cupboard to allow you to keep your head down and wait until the authorities restore order, you'll probably be fine. In fact, without the many distractions of modern life, you may well find yourself chatting amiably with neighbors you didn't know you had (more about this in Point 3).
Leave Home disasters are generally long-term, and they might build gradually to crisis proportions (such as the Eight Year Drought experienced by the American Midwest during the Depression, or the Asian Flu pandemic of 1957), or they may be horrifyingly unexpected (like the Chernobyl nuclear reactor meltdown, or a hypothetical dirty-bomb attack on American soil). Some Leave Home disasters are short-term (like a raging fire, or an impending flood), but the common denominator of these disasters is that – as you might expect from the name – you will not be able to stay home! You will have to leave behind your thousands of dollars worth of carefully-hoarded supplies, your tons of ammunition, and anything else you can't carry. If you're lucky, you'll be able to use your car. Otherwise, you're going to be using people-power to get the hell out of town. And, if you have more than a few easily-hidden Krugerrands and personal firearms, you're going to feel kinda self-conscious staggering down the highway with a fancy tactical backpack full of boxed water, gold ingots, and ammunition for the AR-15 slung over your shoulder.
In summary, if you are in an urban or suburban area when an Event happens, and you can stay in your house, then things are not so bad that they won't soon be fixed. If you can NOT stay in your house, then you can't take most of your supplies with you anyway. My point is that, in either case, more than a few weeks worth of supplies is a waste of money and space. Counter-intuitive though it may seem to the American mentality, buying more stuff will not save you.
So what will?
Point 3. No Man Is An Island.
The typical survivalist mentality is one of rugged individualism to the nth degree. We are told that we will have to steel ourselves to the sound of our dying neighbors clawing at the door to our fortified basement, as we grimly ration SPAM and iodine tablets to our sobbing families. This is, in my humble opinion, bullshit.
First of all, what's the point of surviving if you can't live with yourself? I don't know about you, but I'm not too keen on the idea of letting people die at my doorstep if I can at all avoid it. If it's them or me, fine, but I'd prefer to find another option.
Secondly, as discussed in Point 2, unless you have a really sweet fallout shelter, and a nuclear attack happens at just the right distance from your home to not kill everybody but to cut you off from law and order for an extended period of time, you're very unlikely to be in a situation where you're hunkered down for months at a time. And, in that case, if history teaches us anything, it's that one man with a gun and a full pantry can not hold off the world for very long. In fact, once his location and state of his affluence is discovered, it'll be Custer's Last Stand all over again. You would do whatever is necessary to care for your loved ones, and so would they.
In any case, it's far more likely that you'll be facing one of the two scenarios I've described in Point 2: either you'll be dealing with a couple of weeks of post-disaster chaos, or you'll be hoofing it out of town in a long caravan of your fellow citizens. In either case, there's strength – and safety – in numbers. Chances are, the only people that are already going to be in organized groups are criminal gangs, so if you've got something you don't want to give up (like your wife or daughters), you're going to have to form – or join - a gang of your own. Whether you call it a Neighborhood Preparedness Association, a Citizens Brigade, a posse, a church group, or a Girl Scout troop is up to you. But in the absence of the technology that insulates us from each other, it'll be time to get friendly. In fact, don't be surprised if you like it! After a hurricane devastated my city, a few years ago, I met - and had nice conversations with – more of my neighbors than I ever had, in the previous five years I'd lived in that house. Interestingly, after the National Guard moved in, and the situation stabilized, we all went back to politely ignoring each other. However, it's been my experience that adversity brings out the best in most people. It's just the assholes you need to watch out for.
Point 4. I Survived. What Next?
So, since a Stay Home disaster is really not that big of a deal, let's consider the Leave Home experience. Imagine a worst-case scenario – the kind of thing that really gets those survivalist juices flowing. How about a coordinated, simultaneous nuclear attack on multiple US cities? This was the premise of the TV show “Jericho,” and what a terrific yarn that was! Now, that program took place in a small town that was fortunate enough to be largely untouched by the initial attacks, received only minimal fallout, and then more or less held things together thanks to good local leadership. Very nice. But what about the rest of us, who are statistically far more likely to be in population centers when TSHTF?
(Note: my reference to statistical probability also explains why you tend to find yourself in the longest line at the supermarket. In any given environment, if the majority of the population is in one place, the odds are that any given person will be in that place. You ARE any given person, so you're more likely to be there too.)
The short answer is that you need three things:
1) Somewhere to go.
2) A way to get there.
3) The ability to sustain yourself and your dependents for the indefinite future, once you're there.
Taken together, these three elements comprise the "Personal Exit Strategy" for which this blog is named. Interestingly, all three of these conditions are just about equally difficult to meet. In upcoming posts, I will attempt to outline a rational approach to all three problems.
America consumes more of everything than any other culture in the world. So, naturally, most survivalist/preppers port that mass-consumption philosophy over to disaster preparedness, insisting that anything short of a basement fallout shelter with a full arsenal and months – if not years – of food supplies are the absolute minimum required to be safe in the event of a major cataclysm. More guns, more ammo, more bottled water, more canned food, more of this and that …
Bullshit. And here's why.
Point 2. Should I Stay Or Should I Go?
Unless you're lucky enough to happen to live very far away from any population center associated with whatever Bad Thing happens, there's really no type of disaster that would allow you to take advantage of the type of stockpile that conventional survivalism advocates. If you have a well-stocked retreat in the mountains of Wyoming – and you're there when disaster strikes – you're all set, at least until your canned supplies run out (more about this in future posts). But the fact is that most of us live in or around urban areas, and need to plan accordingly.
And that planning begins with the realization that there are really only two types of disaster scenarios that exist – Stay Home or Leave Home.
Stay Home disasters are generally short-term, and unexpected (like Katrina or 9/11). If you're caught in one, you'll want to hunker down in your house (if it isn't destroyed or uninhabitable, and you haven't been forcibly evacuated) for a few days, maybe a week or two at most. In that situation – and I've been through a devastating hurricane and its aftermath – it is definitely much nicer to have some food, water and a gun than not to. But, although folks may be scared, and some looting may occur, you're not likely to see mobs of desperate, starving people roaming the streets. Basically, if you have enough non-perishables and bottled water in your cupboard to allow you to keep your head down and wait until the authorities restore order, you'll probably be fine. In fact, without the many distractions of modern life, you may well find yourself chatting amiably with neighbors you didn't know you had (more about this in Point 3).
Leave Home disasters are generally long-term, and they might build gradually to crisis proportions (such as the Eight Year Drought experienced by the American Midwest during the Depression, or the Asian Flu pandemic of 1957), or they may be horrifyingly unexpected (like the Chernobyl nuclear reactor meltdown, or a hypothetical dirty-bomb attack on American soil). Some Leave Home disasters are short-term (like a raging fire, or an impending flood), but the common denominator of these disasters is that – as you might expect from the name – you will not be able to stay home! You will have to leave behind your thousands of dollars worth of carefully-hoarded supplies, your tons of ammunition, and anything else you can't carry. If you're lucky, you'll be able to use your car. Otherwise, you're going to be using people-power to get the hell out of town. And, if you have more than a few easily-hidden Krugerrands and personal firearms, you're going to feel kinda self-conscious staggering down the highway with a fancy tactical backpack full of boxed water, gold ingots, and ammunition for the AR-15 slung over your shoulder.
In summary, if you are in an urban or suburban area when an Event happens, and you can stay in your house, then things are not so bad that they won't soon be fixed. If you can NOT stay in your house, then you can't take most of your supplies with you anyway. My point is that, in either case, more than a few weeks worth of supplies is a waste of money and space. Counter-intuitive though it may seem to the American mentality, buying more stuff will not save you.
So what will?
Point 3. No Man Is An Island.
The typical survivalist mentality is one of rugged individualism to the nth degree. We are told that we will have to steel ourselves to the sound of our dying neighbors clawing at the door to our fortified basement, as we grimly ration SPAM and iodine tablets to our sobbing families. This is, in my humble opinion, bullshit.
First of all, what's the point of surviving if you can't live with yourself? I don't know about you, but I'm not too keen on the idea of letting people die at my doorstep if I can at all avoid it. If it's them or me, fine, but I'd prefer to find another option.
Secondly, as discussed in Point 2, unless you have a really sweet fallout shelter, and a nuclear attack happens at just the right distance from your home to not kill everybody but to cut you off from law and order for an extended period of time, you're very unlikely to be in a situation where you're hunkered down for months at a time. And, in that case, if history teaches us anything, it's that one man with a gun and a full pantry can not hold off the world for very long. In fact, once his location and state of his affluence is discovered, it'll be Custer's Last Stand all over again. You would do whatever is necessary to care for your loved ones, and so would they.
In any case, it's far more likely that you'll be facing one of the two scenarios I've described in Point 2: either you'll be dealing with a couple of weeks of post-disaster chaos, or you'll be hoofing it out of town in a long caravan of your fellow citizens. In either case, there's strength – and safety – in numbers. Chances are, the only people that are already going to be in organized groups are criminal gangs, so if you've got something you don't want to give up (like your wife or daughters), you're going to have to form – or join - a gang of your own. Whether you call it a Neighborhood Preparedness Association, a Citizens Brigade, a posse, a church group, or a Girl Scout troop is up to you. But in the absence of the technology that insulates us from each other, it'll be time to get friendly. In fact, don't be surprised if you like it! After a hurricane devastated my city, a few years ago, I met - and had nice conversations with – more of my neighbors than I ever had, in the previous five years I'd lived in that house. Interestingly, after the National Guard moved in, and the situation stabilized, we all went back to politely ignoring each other. However, it's been my experience that adversity brings out the best in most people. It's just the assholes you need to watch out for.
Point 4. I Survived. What Next?
So, since a Stay Home disaster is really not that big of a deal, let's consider the Leave Home experience. Imagine a worst-case scenario – the kind of thing that really gets those survivalist juices flowing. How about a coordinated, simultaneous nuclear attack on multiple US cities? This was the premise of the TV show “Jericho,” and what a terrific yarn that was! Now, that program took place in a small town that was fortunate enough to be largely untouched by the initial attacks, received only minimal fallout, and then more or less held things together thanks to good local leadership. Very nice. But what about the rest of us, who are statistically far more likely to be in population centers when TSHTF?
(Note: my reference to statistical probability also explains why you tend to find yourself in the longest line at the supermarket. In any given environment, if the majority of the population is in one place, the odds are that any given person will be in that place. You ARE any given person, so you're more likely to be there too.)
The short answer is that you need three things:
1) Somewhere to go.
2) A way to get there.
3) The ability to sustain yourself and your dependents for the indefinite future, once you're there.
Taken together, these three elements comprise the "Personal Exit Strategy" for which this blog is named. Interestingly, all three of these conditions are just about equally difficult to meet. In upcoming posts, I will attempt to outline a rational approach to all three problems.
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